实际应用中，压气机轴端连接结构的装配工艺、连接件表面质量以及工作载荷等因素具有显著的不确定性，易造成轴端紧固力衰减。针对这一问题，本研究将轴端紧固力的生命历程分为预紧、静置和服役三个阶段，提出了轴端连接结构整个生命过程中紧固力的预测模型，并结合试验与仿真完成验证。然后，进一步构建了压气机轴端紧固可靠性模型，完成了可靠性评估。研究结果表明：本研究构建的紧固力预测模型精度较高，误差在±10%以内；在95%可靠度的条件下，利用可靠性模型评估的紧固力松动临界值为36.69 kN，满足可靠性要求。

In practice, factors such as the assembly process of compressor shaft end connection structures, surface quality of connecting components, and operational loads exhibit significant uncertainties, which can lead to degradation of the shaft end fastening force. To address this issue, the life cycle of the shaft end fastening force was divided into three sequential stages: pre-tensioning, static holding and service operation. A prediction model of the fastening force during the whole life course of shaft end connecting structure was developed and validated using experimental and simulation data. Based on this, a reliability model for compressor shaft end fastening was established to enable quantitative reliability assessment. The results indicate that the proposed fastening force prediction model achieves high accuracy, with errors within ±10%. Under 95% reliability conditions, the critical  fastening force required to prevent loosening, as evaluated by the reliability model, is 36.69 kN, satisfying the specified reliability requirements.